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LAST month Nick Rowe had a bad dream. It was five minutes before the first class of the autumn term at Carleton University in Ottawa, where he has long taught macroeconomics. But he could not find the classroom. Then he woke up and remembered with relief that he had just retired. Learning macro is a source of anxiety for many students. Teaching it can give their professors the jitters, too. The subject is notoriously difficult to explain well. During his 37 years at Carleton Mr Rowe remained, by his own admission, “fairly low down the totem pole” as a researcher. But he became a thunderbird at conveying macroeconomic intuition. In the past decade this served him well in his second intellectual career, contributing to Worthwhile Canadian Initiative, an economics blog. Many a controversy has benefited from one of his ingenious analogies or numerical parables, usually involving some kind of fruit. Professors may find themselves ill-prepared for the macro...

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/three-reasons-for-fed-interest-rate-increases-by-martin-feldstein-2018-12?fbclid=IwAR2zGije7NQYxemP7CGSSISGqGWec01fhlHn_cTdBm_Pr4FLoqG2HLETEw4 Given that the US Federal Reserve has long said that its interest-rate policy is “data dependent,” why has it pressed ahead with monetary tightening in the face of worsening economic indicators? Three reasons stand out. CAMBRIDGE – Earlier this month, the US Federal Reserve’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to increase the short-term interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, taking it from 2.25% to 2.5%. This was the fourth increase in 12 months, a sequence that had been projected a year ago, and the FOMC members also indicated that there would be two more quarter-point increases in 2019. The announcement soon met with widespread disapproval. Critics noted that economic growth has slow...

Source: http://www.viet-studies.com/kinhte/CoreInflationVN_August%202018.pdf  The paper develops robust measures of core inflation for Vietnam that can be used in policy-making. These core inflation measures (CIMs) are based on an analytical evaluation of the inflation process in the country, and use a filtering approach to narrow down potential measures that satisfy certain empirically desirable criteria. The study finds that commonly used exclusion-based measures (EBMs) do not perform well against these empirical criteria; trimmed mean measures (TMMs) do better. Among TMMs, “one trim does not fit all periods” — periods of high and variable inflation require larger trims, and vice versa. The econometric computer programmes employed in the paper allow for quick and timely replication of CIMs as new data become available, making them valuable tools for the State Bank of Vietnam. These procedures and programmes can also be ...

larrysummers.com Economists like me see the world through the prism of models, fit to statistical data and tested against market realities. Economic models provide powerful perspective: I have used them to argue that, had the economy been left to itself and policymakers not heeded the lessons of history and theory, the 2008 financial crisis might have led to another depression. But there are other ways of gaining understanding about an economy and its workers. This was brought home to me last month when I accompanied my wife on a trip different from any I had ever taken. We drove for two weeks on two-lane roads from Chicago to Portland, Ore., across the Great Plains and Rocky Mountains. The larger cities we passed through included Dubuque, Iowa; Cody, Wyo.; and Bozeman, Mont. Driving across America, as opposed to looking down from a plane, mak...

voxeu.org The 2018 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences has been awarded jointly to William Nordhaus for ‘integrating climate change into long-run macroeconomic analysis’, and to Paul Romer for ‘integrating technological innovations into long-run macroeconomic analysis’. This column outlines their work and the connections between them. Both have at their core the longstanding problem of economic growth: why are some places and times rich and others poor, and what is the impact of these differences? Occasionally, the Nobel Committee gives a prize that is unexpected, surprising, yet deft in how it points out underappreciated research. This year, they did no such thing. Both William Nordhaus and Paul Romer have been running favourites for the award for many years. The surprise, if anything, is that the prize went to both men together: Nordhaus is best known for his environmental economics; and Romer for his ...

nytimes.com Bản dịch: http://ttvn.vn/kinh-doanh/su-that-bat-ngo-ve-tham-hut-thuong-mai-420181010143827763.htm  President Trump has put trade policy at the center of his agenda. A case in point is the revised trade agreement with Mexico and Canada, announced on Monday. Yet it is hard to be sanguine about this accomplishment, in part because the changes are so modest but mostly because the president’s overall approach to international trade is so confused. Mr. Trump’s confusion is understandable. Economists have spent centuries studying trade, debunking common myths and arriving at some surprising truths. Let’s review, both for the president and ourselves, some conclusions about trade that most economists accept but, upon first hearing, are not at all obvious. Bilateral trade deficits don’t matter. When Mr. Trump discusses our trade relations with another nation, he often points to the bilateral trade balance — the difference betw...

Source: asia.nikkei.com The hidden risks of China's war on debt - Nikkei Asian Review HENNY SENDER, Nikkei Asian Review columnist 12-15 minutes HONG KONG -- When the Bank of Jinzhou, based in China's northeastern rust belt, went public on the Hong Kong stock exchange two years ago, its finances were a wreck. It had issued 34 billion yuan ($5.36 billion) worth of "wealth management products" that are hallmarks of China's sprawling "shadow" banking sector, and it was owed 9 billion yuan by an unnamed borrower who was under investigation by Hong Kong regulators. The bank, like many others across China, was loaded with risky debt -- the kind that China's leadership in Beijing is now determined to stamp out. After a massive buildup over the past decade, the government is waging an all-out war on debt. In December, President Xi Jinping said slashing debt was one of the "critica...

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Economy (Money system) explained in 30 minutes