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LAST month Nick Rowe had a bad dream. It was five minutes before the first class of the autumn term at Carleton University in Ottawa, where he has long taught macroeconomics. But he could not find the classroom. Then he woke up and remembered with relief that he had just retired. Learning macro is a source of anxiety for many students. Teaching it can give their professors the jitters, too. The subject is notoriously difficult to explain well. During his 37 years at Carleton Mr Rowe remained, by his own admission, “fairly low down the totem pole” as a researcher. But he became a thunderbird at conveying macroeconomic intuition. In the past decade this served him well in his second intellectual career, contributing to Worthwhile Canadian Initiative, an economics blog. Many a controversy has benefited from one of his ingenious analogies or numerical parables, usually involving some kind of fruit. Professors may find themselves ill-prepared for the macro...

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/three-reasons-for-fed-interest-rate-increases-by-martin-feldstein-2018-12?fbclid=IwAR2zGije7NQYxemP7CGSSISGqGWec01fhlHn_cTdBm_Pr4FLoqG2HLETEw4 Given that the US Federal Reserve has long said that its interest-rate policy is “data dependent,” why has it pressed ahead with monetary tightening in the face of worsening economic indicators? Three reasons stand out. CAMBRIDGE – Earlier this month, the US Federal Reserve’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to increase the short-term interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, taking it from 2.25% to 2.5%. This was the fourth increase in 12 months, a sequence that had been projected a year ago, and the FOMC members also indicated that there would be two more quarter-point increases in 2019. The announcement soon met with widespread disapproval. Critics noted that economic growth has slow...

Source: http://www.viet-studies.com/kinhte/FutureNotChina_FT.pdf Do not extrapolate from the recent past. China has had a hugely impressive four decades. After their triumph in the cold war, both the west and the cause of liberal democracy have stumbled. Should we conclude that an autocratic China is sure to become the world’s dominant power in the next few decades? My answer is: no. That is a possible future, not a certain one. The view widely held in the 1980s that Japan would be “number one” turned out to be badly mistaken. In 1956, Nikita Khrushchev, then first secretary of the communist party of the Soviet Union, told the west that “We will bury you!” He proved utterly wrong. The examples of Japan and the Soviet Union highlight three frequent mistakes: extrapolating from the recent past......

washingtonpost.com Review | How to bring ethics and morality to capitalism By Steven Pearlstein Steven Pearlstein Email Bio Follow Columnist December 20 12-15 minutes Review A professional critic’s assessment of a service, product, performance, or artistic or literary work Steven Pearlstein is a Washington Post business and economics columnist. He is also Robinson Professor of Public Affairs at George Mason University and author of “Can American Capitalism Survive?” Brexit protesters outside Parliament in London this month. Britain’s plan to leave the European Union is just one global development causing economists to reexamine capitalism’s defects. (Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images) What with Trump and Brexit and the turn toward authoritarianism in Brazil and Eastern Europe, there has recently been a lot of book-length handwringing about the future of democr...

larrysummers.com Economists like me see the world through the prism of models, fit to statistical data and tested against market realities. Economic models provide powerful perspective: I have used them to argue that, had the economy been left to itself and policymakers not heeded the lessons of history and theory, the 2008 financial crisis might have led to another depression. But there are other ways of gaining understanding about an economy and its workers. This was brought home to me last month when I accompanied my wife on a trip different from any I had ever taken. We drove for two weeks on two-lane roads from Chicago to Portland, Ore., across the Great Plains and Rocky Mountains. The larger cities we passed through included Dubuque, Iowa; Cody, Wyo.; and Bozeman, Mont. Driving across America, as opposed to looking down from a plane, mak...

voxeu.org The 2018 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences has been awarded jointly to William Nordhaus for ‘integrating climate change into long-run macroeconomic analysis’, and to Paul Romer for ‘integrating technological innovations into long-run macroeconomic analysis’. This column outlines their work and the connections between them. Both have at their core the longstanding problem of economic growth: why are some places and times rich and others poor, and what is the impact of these differences? Occasionally, the Nobel Committee gives a prize that is unexpected, surprising, yet deft in how it points out underappreciated research. This year, they did no such thing. Both William Nordhaus and Paul Romer have been running favourites for the award for many years. The surprise, if anything, is that the prize went to both men together: Nordhaus is best known for his environmental economics; and Romer for his ...

nytimes.com Bản dịch: http://ttvn.vn/kinh-doanh/su-that-bat-ngo-ve-tham-hut-thuong-mai-420181010143827763.htm  President Trump has put trade policy at the center of his agenda. A case in point is the revised trade agreement with Mexico and Canada, announced on Monday. Yet it is hard to be sanguine about this accomplishment, in part because the changes are so modest but mostly because the president’s overall approach to international trade is so confused. Mr. Trump’s confusion is understandable. Economists have spent centuries studying trade, debunking common myths and arriving at some surprising truths. Let’s review, both for the president and ourselves, some conclusions about trade that most economists accept but, upon first hearing, are not at all obvious. Bilateral trade deficits don’t matter. When Mr. Trump discusses our trade relations with another nation, he often points to the bilateral trade balance — the difference betw...

nytimes.com   The futurist philosopher Yuval Noah Harari worries about a lot. He worries that Silicon Valley is undermining democracy and ushering in a dystopian hellscape in which voting is obsolete. He worries that by creating powerful influence machines to control billions of minds, the big tech companies are destroying the idea of a sovereign individual with free will. He worries that because the technological revolution’s work requires so few laborers, Silicon Valley is creating a tiny ruling class and a teeming, furious “useless class.” But lately, Mr. Harari is anxious about something much more personal. If this is his harrowing warning, then why do Silicon Valley C.E.O.s love him so? “One possibility is that my message is not threatening to them, and so they embrace it?” a puzzled Mr. Harari said one afternoon in October. “For me, that’s more worrying. Maybe I’m missing something?” When Mr. Harari toured the Bay Area this fall to promote his...

nytimes.com What Are the Biggest Problems Facing Us in the 21st Century? The human mind wants to worry. This is not necessarily a bad thing — after all, if a bear is stalking you, worrying about it may well save your life. Although most of us don’t need to lose too much sleep over bears these days, modern life does present plenty of other reasons for concern: terrorism, climate change, the rise of A.I., encroachments on our privacy, even the apparent decline of international cooperation. In his fascinating new book, “21 Lessons for the 21st Century,” the historian Yuval Noah Harari creates a useful framework for confronting these fears. While his previous best sellers, “Sapiens” and “Homo Deus,” covered the past and future respectively, his new book is all about the present. The trick for putting an end to our anxieties, he suggests, is not to stop worrying. It’s to know which things to worry about, and how much to worry about them. As he w...

  Yuval Noah Harari: ‘It takes just one fool to start a war’ (Irish Times 30-8-18)  Why Technology Favors Tyranny (Atlantic September 2018)   Về 3 nhà đại trí thức gốc Áo: Hayek, Popper, và Schumpeter : Hayek, Popper and Schumpeter formulated a response to tyranny   Fukuyama đánh giá di sản Huntington: Huntington's Legacy (American Interest 27-8-18) Phỏng vấn Fukuyama về cuốn sách mới của ông ta : What Follows the End of History? Identity Politics 

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2018/aug/05/yuval-noah-harari-extract-fake-news-sapiens-homo-deus W e are repeatedly told these days that we are living in a new and frightening era of “post-truth”, and that lies and fictions are all around us. Examples are not hard to come by. Thus, in late February 2014, Russian special units bearing no army insignia invaded Ukraine and occupied key installations in Crimea. The Russian government and President Vladimir Putin in person repeatedly denied that these were Russian troops, and described them as spontaneous “self-defence groups” that may have acquired Russian-looking equipment from local shops. As they voiced this rather preposterous claim, Putin and his aides knew perfectly well that they were lying. Russian nationalists can excuse this lie by arguing that it served a higher truth. Russia was engaged in a just war, and if it is OK to kill for a just cause, surely it is also OK to lie? The higher...